Hey Guys, long time that I have been posting on blogabet. Just a quick note that I might leave a few bets in here for the future again.

I cannot promise that it will be steady and constant posting, that is totally depending on how much time I find next to all my other tasks etc.

Cheers,

Zico

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A small bet on Leverkusen and against Mainz.
It is not about Mainz losing the EL round and playing twice 120 minutes in a week (they rotated so not a very big impact), but more about the way they have been playing. They did lack clear goal chances last season already, but with Holtby, Schürrle and the rest (Szalai, Allagui, Risse etc) they could score enough goals to finish a good season.

However, if we think back many many results have been very close and they never really lived from great goalscoring abilities. This was further proved from the last game impressions. Creating chances has not been the biggest problem (against low quality teams) but the finishing has been very improveable. They lack confidence and as Bungert stated the atmosphere is not as perfect as in the last season.

Overall they need time to create a strong team spirit, they lack penetration power and today I also saw many many wrong passes.

Leverkusen started out with a shocker. Out in the Cup after 0:3 lead against Dresden. I have also watched this match and I think the first 60 minutes where played perfect by Leverkusen, but with Ballack and Kiessling coming in and the 1:3 concede the team hang in the air. Neither Ballack nor Kiessling had any impact really on the game and they lost midfield domination due to this. I think Dutt took his lesson from this event and will take the right decisions out of this interesting situation.
Generally, Leverkusen has been strong away from home and they own a lot of quality to beat Mainz in this encounter. Only fear is the defense without Hyypia (Toprak+Reinartz) and goalkeeper position (Adler injured), but I am optimistic here that Leverkusen will take an advantage of the rather weak attack (creating/using chances) here.

Good luck.

Discuss in forum (6 entries)

Bremen matches are - if not many goals - at least usually including a handful of goalchances and therefore a potential for many goals.

Defense situation in Bremen is still critical. Silvestre has to defend on left back position, Metzelder+Prödl on center back position and original midfield player Wesley has to defend on right back position again. Boenisch, Pasanen, Naldo and Fritz are still missing - whereas Naldo/Fritz are regulars and Boenisch/Pasanen would be most likely a better option than Silvestre - who is really having problems to adapt to Bundesliga level. Wiese is back in goal, but I do not think this will have a big impact on this match. Mielietz who did replace Wiese did show many great safes, but a few situations are simply not safeable for the goalies.

Offensively, Bremen has a great potential and as Bargfrede is missing on midfield the formation will be even more offensive minded. Although Wesley can defend on right back position, he usually also adds handful of offensive danger. Only problem was the use of goal chances - however there is still an opponent to use their offensive way of playing....


....which is Stuttgart who had a small uptrend with new coach but got back to reality losing 2:0 to Wolfsburg last round. Defensively also quite weak, often naiv defended - but in offense with a few strong attacks which could end differently. Tasci is missing on center back position, so that Niedermeier+Delpierre will form the center back position. A few players are still doubted, so its not clarified how the midfield will look like, but generally Stuttgart is looking to attack over the wings with Camoranesi/Gebhart or Gentner (whoever is fit or is going to be preferred) and the left back Molinaro or Boka (who could aswell play on left midfield).
Stuttgart has a weak goalkeeper in my opinion with Ulreich, who is regularly making mistakes and who is not convincing overall. The regular changes in defense are not helping the defense to stabilize either.

So far, so fine. The line is set at 3 and the price aint too high either, so the market agree's with us so far. However, I think the situation both clubs are in will give us the edge in this match. Stuttgart is playing at home, which is great. They are lacking points currently sitting in the bottom of the table. If I imagine a team which does want to win, or need to win with some potential to score, facing a weak defending Bremen side - who's strength lie in offense and who did lose in past three matches - then I cannot see either team not wanting to go for the win.

The only aspect which can "kill" this bet would be, if both teams - due to their situation - are somewhat feeling less confident, and therefore dont call their potential. However, a not too late goal either way should give us a match with many goal chances.

Discuss in forum (7 entries)

Not so many words on this match, it is a mixture of past results and the way of playing of each teams which may result in the under here.

Leverkusen is still missing Ballack, Kiessling, Hyypia, Castro and Renato is back in the squad but still lacks match fitness.
Latest Leverkusen results, in their intensive 3 day schedule: 0:0 - 0:1 - 1:1 - 0:1 - 1:0

Reasons for the low goals is that Barnetta isnt performing too well on the wing. Sam, who came from 2. Bundesliga is slowly adapting, but cannot perform as well as Renato Augusto, who was injured but is back now sitting on bench most likely. The problems on the wings result in less creativity and less crosses for the strong heading Derdiyok and less ground crosses for Helmes. Further on, Kiessling also added another level in attack which they currently lack. Often, Leverkusen is trying to compensate this with a strong midfield (defensive minded) - partly going with 3 defensive midfield players (Bender, Vidal, Balitsch and sometimes Rolfes instead of one of them).

So in short, Leverkusen is having a difficult time to score many goals - especially against compact teams.

Kaiserslautern, is a solid team. They got only trashed once in Dortmund (5:0) which so far was a one-time event. In the last 5 matches of Lautern we did see 3 goals each in Lautern matches.
Taking into account that Lautern still does miss Ilicevic who is somewhat vital to make trouble over the wings, I doubt they are going to easy score against Leverkusen as well. The goals scored last round in 3:0 win have been introduced with a longshot for the 1:0 and further big - naiv Gladbach defense mistakes. I rate Leverkusen defense stronger here overall.

Under 3 is my call here, would expect a void in worst case but hey its Bundesliga :-)

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Hamburg\'s injury situation is still not easy. Ruud Van Nistelrooy got checked today and will definitely miss due to injury. Petric has some injury problems and is doubted as well. Even though he might be fit enough, they are weakened in attack.
Ze Roberto is expected to be back after his flu. However, Benjamin will definitely miss just where he grabbed the right back position from Demel, who is totally out of form. Jansen did play with pain for several rounds and (broken toe) I expect him to be 50/50 for this match as well.
Does only leave Rincon/Tesche and Demel for the right/left back position. Armin Veh did underline that against Köln exactly those positions were their weak points. Jarolim is expected to be back on defensive midfield, which is a strengthening but it still doesnt help on the RB/LB position.
Defense is weakened, midfield is good - especially with this young 18-years Sun who just came back from injury against Köln and scored a very nice goal, with Jarolim, Ze Roberto, Pitroipa etc. Still offense would be rather weakened with only Guerrero/Moting being fit.

Hoffenheim did not convince me really against Hannover. Only a red card, Pinto getting injured for Hannover and a fumble goal for 1:0 did introduce an easier match for them and many more goals in second half.
However, Hoffenheim still has some decent quality in their rows. Despite their defense problems with Ibertsberger small injury (sit on bench last round), Vorsah\'s small problems (did start last match) and Eichners formdown they are not conceding too many goals. It might be possible, that for this match Ibertsberger could start on left back position again, allowing Gustavo to play on midfield which is more useful for the team.
In midfield they have a handful of alternatives and with Obasi returning they should get even more quality in attack once he is in best shape again after a long injury. Ibisevic got a break on bench as a lesson for him (red card in Cup due to ruding, also some form down lately), but he could play a joker role against Hoffenheim. This is no weakening as with Obasi, the strong Ba (who scored in 6 out of 6 matches) and Mlapa they still have some decent quality in offense.

Hamburg is playing at home, but actually the injury situation cant satisfy them. I do expect a similar close match compared to Hamburg vs Bayern, an intensive match especially due Hoffenheim's way of playing. They are acting as a team, running a lot and pressing early. Their situation in terms of form and team spirit is better than in Hamburg.

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Köln still has to work on a lots of issues and they are missing Petit in this match which isnt a great help either.
However, the midweek Cup win (although the result was better than the performance) gave them a positive event increasing their self-confidence.
The fans shouldnt be too nervous now, with the impressions from the Cup match they will rather support the team as good as they can.
Quality wise, of course Köln will have a tough time overall and even though Hamburg is missing many players (more about it later) they are not fielding much more quality themselves.
But, with a solid fighting performance and Novakovic+Podolski in attack they might trouble Hamburg here. I know Köln isnt stable yet and they are not really trustable with this squad, but this bet goes more against Hamburg than on Köln as...

...Hamburg is missing many vital players who safed them wins/points lately.
To name them: Ze Roberto, Nistelrooy, Rost (okay Drobny is a good replacement), Jansen, Diekmeier, Aogo, Benjamin, Elia, Castelen and Torun. Roberto, Jansen, Nistelrooy are the most important and lately playing once.

Midweek in DFB Cup Frankfurt got trashed 5:2 by Frankfurt, a really unacceptable performance overall. Many of the above mentioned players where playing then with pain, or half fit and are now finally out. A match against Bayern where they did play quite well (0:0), following a heavy defeat of 5:2 against Frankfurt isnt indicating a positive performance for this round. Of course Hamburg still holds some quality, but the quotes are suggesting Hamburg are favourites here which is, under those circumstances, simply not right.

Therefore my call goes to Köln, not the most confident bet, but one which could be good enough.

Discuss in forum (4 entries)

Wolfsburg has a great potential in the team but obviously  they lack some fighting spirit.
During this week, in the training, especially Grafite looked full of this fighting spirit and fire in him. Many hard tackles which coach McClaren does want to see.
"As you train, so you play", is what he says. Although Wolfsburg did show quite a "professional" but again unpassioned performance in the Cup midweek, I expect them to show more winning spirit in this one.
Further on, I noticed that McClaren and the players are generally underlining how important home matches are for them and that they need to win at home in order to be more successful.

Stuttgart did sack coach Gross and starts performing again. What a surprise.. new year same story as usual. Actually Stuttgart did not convince me fully against still unstable Schalke team (2:2 draw). Everyone can convince against them so far (Frankfurt did so at the 0:0).
Against Pauli stuttgart won 2:0. However, Pauli had a few dangerous situations and a shot on the post. The 2:0 was scored irregular as well (foul to Thorandt which was recognized by referees). Midweek, they had a very tough match against Chemnitz who did play very hard/aggressive.
The match went over 120 minutes as Stuttgart couldnt convince/grab the win over 90 minutes (1:1). Many guys are doubted for tomorrow, as they got tackled hard during the matches. Especially in defense, Delpierre is missing due to suspension (injured as well). Niedermeier, Boka are out as well. Leaving Bouhlarouz (who is doubted as well) and Tasci (who has regular muscle problems) in defense. Its possible that one of them will be out and replaced by Stuttgart II team player Bicakcic. So either Wolfsburgs strong offense is facing some half fit defenders, or some inexperienced once.
In midfield Gentner is out, who is an important player as well. Kuzmanovic, who is taking over more or less a leading role, has some muscular problems too but is expected to play.
In attack, harnik has to replace Marica/Pogrebnya who are both out. Cacau, who was rested midweek due to injury problems is expected to play next to him.
Overall quite a weakened Stuttgart team, who on top of that in my opinion yet dont deserve this hype (Wolfsburg line went down to -0.25, from -0.75) as they did play solid but not superb.

I am on Wolfsburg here. At least same quality, at home and probably more fit. The number of many injured guys for Stuttgart. All indicating home win IMO.

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Nürnberg has been getting some decent results here and there but overall we should not overrate them too much.
They have been losing to Pauli and Frankfurt away from home already. Beating Schalke (10 men due to red card) and the rather low effort putting Wolfsburg side, shouldnt be too overrated.
Of course they have got a well balanced team, but quality wise they are not close to what Bremen owns especially in midfield/attack.

Bremen simply more quality offense with Marin, Arnautovic, Pizarro (compare it to Schieber, Ekici, Gündogan, Frantz - all fine but 2-3 steps to that level still).
Of course Bremen is still shaky in defense as we could see against Bayern, but the positive way they did play against Bayern in Cup, despite losing was indicating their potential.
Bremen generally doing great at home, coach Schaaf announced that they are going to play in an offensive way, to make the game. This does include some risk of course, but if Bremen can keep the pressure high Nürnberg will have a difficult time to make a surprise.
History between both teams and the fact that Nürnberg generally doing weak away from home so far this season are further points assisting this bet.